The Analysis Blunder Risk Model (ABRM) is a computational tool designed to assess the likelihood of a collision due to specific blunders. These blunders can stem from controller errors, pilot mistakes, or equipment failures. In this model, one aircraft is identified as the “blunderer” while another is referred to as the “evader.”
ABRM evaluates two key probabilities: first, the chance of a collision occurring without any intervention, and second, the likelihood of timely actions taken by pilots or air traffic controllers. To achieve this, the model utilizes empirical probability distributions related to reaction times alongside a closed-form probability equation. This approach allows for an efficient and accurate analysis of events that have low probabilities.
The model was programmed in Excel with macros, making it accessible for practical use. It was developed by Ken Geisinger from the FAA in 1985, and it has since played a crucial role in enhancing aviation safety.
