The United States commands one of the largest international aviation markets on the planet. In the 12 months to October 2025, 256 million passengers traveled to and from the country—an average of 701,000 travelers every single day. On the surface, the market appears steady. Traffic was virtually flat year-over-year, and the average international seat load factor—the percentage of seats filled—stood at 82.2%, only slightly down from 82.4% the year before.
Yet averages conceal extremes. Beneath that respectable 82% figure lies a striking truth: several international routes operated with cabins that were startlingly empty. Some flights departed with barely a quarter of their seats occupied. These thin routes reveal not just operational miscalculations, but also shifting geopolitics, experimental expansions, and the unforgiving mathematics of airline economics.
To isolate meaningful data, only routes with at least 2,000 round-trip passengers between November 2024 and October 2025 were considered. US territories in the Caribbean and Pacific were excluded. What remains is a fascinating portrait of ambition colliding with demand reality.
The 10 Emptiest US International Routes by Load Factor
The lowest-performing route recorded a load factor of just 25.7%. That means nearly three out of four seats went unsold. The routes span short-haul Mexico-US links, niche island connections, and even a long-standing transcontinental service.
Among the weakest performers were:
- Morelia – San Antonio (Volaris): 25.7%
- Kiritimati – Honolulu (Fiji Airways): 26.8%
- Tijuana – Las Vegas (Volaris): 29.1%
- Singapore – Houston (via Manchester) (Singapore Airlines): 30.1%
- Bermuda – Westchester (BermudAir): 32.5%
- Los Cabos – Ontario (Volaris): 35.9%
- San Luis Potosí – San Antonio (Volaris): 36.4%
- Cancun – McAllen (Volaris): 37.2%
- New Orleans – Tegucigalpa (Spirit): 40.6%
- Kuwait – New York JFK (Kuwait Airways): 40.6%
Several of these routes operated only weekly. Others ran for limited seasonal windows. Frequency and duration played a crucial role in shaping these outcomes.
Volaris and the San Antonio–Morelia Gamble
The most underfilled route in the country connected Morelia, Mexico, to San Antonio, Texas. Volaris launched the 596-nautical-mile service on July 5, 2025, operating three times weekly with Airbus A320 family aircraft.
From July through October 2025, the route posted a 25.7% load factor. Monthly data showed a troubling slide: July at 35.4%, August at 25.1%, September at 19.3%, and October at 23.8%. That kind of trajectory suggests not a temporary slump but a structural demand issue.
Despite the weak uptake, flights continue into 2026—for now. Notably, bookings are not available beyond April 11, signaling that cancellation may be imminent. Ultra-low-cost carriers thrive on stimulating price-sensitive traffic, but even rock-bottom fares cannot create passengers where demand simply does not exist.
Short Hauls, Sparse Cabins: Mexico-US Links Under Pressure
Volaris appears multiple times on the emptiest list. Routes such as Tijuana–Las Vegas and Los Cabos–Ontario struggled to gain traction. Some of these operated only briefly. Tijuana–Las Vegas ran from October 2024 to January 2025 before being withdrawn.
These results highlight a key dynamic in cross-border aviation. The Mexico-US corridor is enormous, but it is also intensely competitive and highly price-sensitive. Adding capacity into already served regions can quickly dilute load factors. Low frequency compounds the issue; a weekly service may struggle to build habitual traffic.
Similarly, Cancun–McAllen, which ended in October 2025, illustrates how leisure-heavy routes can falter outside peak seasons. Thin demand combined with limited brand awareness in secondary US cities creates a fragile operating environment.
Singapore Airlines’ Manchester Stopover to Houston
One of the more surprising inclusions is Singapore Airlines’ Singapore–Houston service via Manchester, which recorded a 30.1% load factor before ending in March 2025.
This was not a marginal regional experiment but a long-haul intercontinental operation. Fifth-freedom rights allowed the airline to carry passengers between Manchester and Houston, yet overall demand failed to sustain the routing. Complex itineraries add friction. Travelers increasingly prefer nonstop options, even at a premium.
The Houston market remains strategically important, but the economics of ultra-long-haul flying demand consistently high occupancy. With fuel prices volatile and aircraft utilization critical, a 30% load factor is untenable.
Island Routes and Limited Frequency Challenges
Kiritimati–Honolulu, operated by Fiji Airways, filled only 26.8% of seats. Remote island markets present unique challenges: small local populations, limited tourism infrastructure, and high operating costs. Even moderate fluctuations in travel patterns can drastically affect load factors.
Similarly, Bermuda–Westchester, served by BermudAir, achieved just 32.5% occupancy. Westchester County Airport is capacity constrained and primarily serves regional demand. Niche international services from secondary airports must rely on extremely targeted passenger segments.
Low frequency further undermines route performance. Weekly or biweekly flights limit scheduling flexibility, discouraging business travelers and complicating connections.
Kuwait Airways and the JFK Imbalance
The only long-haul route to exceed 90,000 round-trip passengers yet still rank among the emptiest was Kuwait Airways’ Kuwait–New York JFK service, with a 40.6% load factor.
The airline has served New York for over four decades. Despite the low occupancy, flights are increasing in 2026 to daily frequency using the 334-seat Boeing 777-300ER. Directional imbalance appears to be a significant factor, with stronger demand in one direction than the other.
Aircraft configuration also matters. Kuwait Airways previously deployed the smaller A330-800, which lacks certain premium cabin features and may face operational performance constraints in extreme summer temperatures. Product positioning in competitive transatlantic and transpacific markets is increasingly decisive.
What These Empty Seats Reveal About 2026
The data underscores a simple truth: not all international expansion succeeds. Airlines are experimenting aggressively, particularly in secondary city pairs and underserved diaspora markets. Some routes are timed poorly. Others underestimate competitive pressure or overestimate local demand.
Load factor alone does not define success. Revenue per seat, cargo contributions, and strategic positioning all play roles. Yet when cabins depart barely one-quarter full, sustainability becomes difficult to justify.
The broader US international market remains resilient at above 82% average occupancy. However, these ten routes reveal how volatile individual city pairs can be. Capacity planning in 2026 will likely grow more disciplined, with airlines prioritizing proven demand corridors over speculative expansion.
In aviation, optimism fuels route launches—but only passengers keep them alive.
